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The college football world was hoping for a March Madness type of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the 4 first-round matches underwhelmed, providing a lot of time for holiday shopping. Favorites went a perfect 4-0 against the spread, consisting of three relatively non-competitive efficiencies by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the general public don't appear to believe so. A minimum of in 2 cases.
Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State feature double-digit spreads favoring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has actually been a particularly popular pick with the public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in regards to total dollars as of Monday afternoon.
"All the cash is being available in on Texas," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, wrote in a text to The Athletic. "We require Arizona State to cover +13.5."
The enthusiasm for the Longhorns extends to the futures market as well. Remember that enormous $1.5 million wager on Texas to win all of it at +390 odds? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.
Interestingly, the Longhorns' challenger, Arizona State - the biggest underdog among the College Football quarterfinal matches - is getting the most like from sharp gamblers. The Athletic spoke with numerous bookies who had actually taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had actually gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books against No. 5 Texas - to push the line down to -12.5 or -12.
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John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, told us he received a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a "extremely reputable gamer."
Despite the fact that highly regarded money has been available in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely require the Sun Devils to do simply that, as public bettors are piling on Texas.
"We would like to see ASU cover, and then Texas win the game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book," Magee included.
While the Texas game will be huge for the books, it isn't the only video game in town. We talked with multiple bookies to break down where the sports betting action is on the other three College Football quarterfinal matches. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State
This video game opened Penn State -10.5 at a lot of sportsbooks and has crept up slightly to a consensus of -11. sports betting on the spread is fairly divided at most sportsbooks. The overall dollars bet varies by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the cash at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets but just 42% of the cash at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is presently the second most popular CFP wager in regards to total tickets at BetMGM books.
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"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are sitting on Penn State -11," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, informed The Athletic. "I would not be surprised if this line approaches a bit more before kickoff, but I presently invite any Boise State money."
Ohio State got the Oregon second possibility it wanted. Are the Buckeyes all set for revenge?
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No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon
Perhaps most unexpected to the general public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog versus No. 8 Ohio State. These teams satisfied back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home dog.
So why is OSU preferred?
Several oddsmakers The with before the CFP very first round had Ohio State atop their power ratings, and the lookahead lines for this hypothetical matchup were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker mentioned that Ohio State playing up to its power ranking in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee also formed his opening line.
Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point preferred (depending upon the sportsbook) in this game before respected cash pressed it to the existing line of -2.5. A a little higher bulk of wagers at a number of sportsbooks, roughly 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while close to 60% of the cash has been available in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle game of the 4 come kickoff.
"We did take some highly regarded cash at -1.5, quickly went to -2.5 where it's remained," Gable said. "It's good two-way action at that number right now. The overall has increased three points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has been the greatest relocation of any of the overalls. Money has actually all been on the over up until now.
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Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that deals with sharp bettors, informed The Athletic that "Ohio State opened as a 1-point preferred, and right away our Ohio wagerers thought we were too low. Our opening rate of Ohio State -1 has actually been increased to -2.5 and the overall from 52 to 55."
He did note, however, that the book had seen considerable buyback at the current line of Ohio State -2.5 and that 52% of the overall dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.
GO DEEPER
The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff's second round
No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)
The favorite flipped in this game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point preferred and is presently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.
What triggered the line flip? Basically, the sports betting action.
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Even though Georgia's beginning QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has actually been changed by relative unknown Gunner Stockton, wagerers are gravitating toward the Bulldogs.
Georgia to cover is the most popular against the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in terms of ticket count (second-most popular by overall dollars bet), and it has been "one-way traffic on Georgia," according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at multiple sportsbooks.
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College Football Playoff Betting Action Report: 'All the Money is Being Available In On Texas'
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